Market Breakdown

Dollar/Aussie-EuroDollar/Gold/Crude
Dollar retested resistance and failed, there is still a lot of support under the dollar, but the Euro bounce off of the double bottom low and is showing strenght in price, it will be interesting to see if the Euro will have a define break of the 1.368 resistance, this week for dollar =bearish, AUD/USD is at a major resistance in a 7month channel, this will be its 4th test at resistance a define break would very bullish for gold, GLD with the Aussie strength and indicators in the GLD pointing to strength at price at these levels gold has  much far to run =bullish, Crude is setting up a bullish pattern, I was neutral last week at resistance, but with a pull back to 20ema after testing resistance it is bullish unless crude breaks 20 &50ema and has no buying  comes in at these levels
this week crude =bullish

Banking
XLF has had a major run form February and is close to major resistance, banks report earnings this week and think that most of the short covering in banks has being achieved  except for Citi and don’t see any reason to added after banks report earnings, I am looking at banks to pull back to test there 20 &50ema but avoiding any shorting, like I stated last week looking at regional banks for more rotation and short covering, this week for the XLF=neutral

Tech
QQQQ the Q’s are almost back to 2007 highs 50.61, you have to be aware of this as resistance, interesting the indicators show no weakness in price this week =bullish, SMH some conflicting patterns between in the weekly and daily, the weekly is showing strength in price with the 200ema under for support  which is bullish, but the daily has turned very weak, the indicators pointing to weakness in price with a possible sell off to support this week =neutral

Materials/Transports
XLB nothing has change form last week, this is a dangerous pattern to go long or short, but the first sign of weakness this first place I am look to short no change form last week =neutral, IYT before any notes let me answer a question on why I use the IYT -transports- as one my indicators for market strength, the IYT touches a broad scale of the business community form small to medium business in UPS & FedEx  to large scale freight like CSX & JB Hunt, this give you a very good indicator of what is truly going on inside of the community, no need for a late to table analysis perching strength  in business to business actively after the trade is over its all right here in a ETF the IYT, for the pattern this week no change from last week strength is still in price as the IYT breaks to new highs =bullish

Bonds
JNK(high yield) same as last week the JNK is setting up to retest Januray highs =bullish, TLT last week price bottom and continue to show more strength going into Friday the same for this week =bullish

Foreign Market
GXC I have been bullish China since March, the GXC is approaching a 52week high of 76.4 indicators are not showing any weakness in price at this level =bullish

Market
even with this huge running up, bullish patterns are still setting up with very few sectors showing weakness in price, the XLF and SMH is more cautious then pointing to a correction in these sectors. the SPX approaching that mental number of 1200, I would focus more1209-1213
this is where the gap down was in 2007, form a long term perspective the Fractal Pattern trend change comes around 1233-1234 but with all that I am still cautious bullish, that means I am not using weight on any given trade unless it has a perfect pull back setup like GLD or BYI, its not a good idea to be holding weight in a trade if the rug is pulled out on this rally.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: